UPDATED: Japan just isn't making babies like it used to. It's true that in August, the nation's health ministry reported an uptick in births for the first six months of 2006 versus a year ago, but then again, '05 saw Japan's birth rate reach its lowest ever: 1.25 per woman, on average. As BBC reports, a rate of 2.1 is needed to keep the population from shrinking further. From an international geopolitical perspective, what would be the effect of a Japan one day lacking a Japanese majority? Worth chewing on, along with parallel questions regarding Europe. But never fear. The Japanese government is here to help by setting a new target rate for total fertility: each Japanese woman on average and over the full course of her life, should have 1.4 kids instead of the current 1.25. It's hard to imagine that pronouncement of this new magic number will be much more help than government-sponsored hiking trips and cruises for Japanese singles.

TOKYO - The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry is determined to set a numerical target for the total fertility rate - the average number of children that a woman gives birth to during her lifetime - aiming to raise the figure from the current 1.25 to around 1.4, as part of measures to prevent a further decline in the number of births, government sources said Saturday. The ministry plans to officially announce the figure in December, and to research practical measures for achieving the goal.

Hmm, let's see. Any ideas, anybody? Here's one, for starters. I think they'd really better leave .4 out of the marketing campaign, in favor of the number 4 - meaning, of course, mom, dad and two kids.

Actually it turns out the biggest reason mentioned for trying to increase Japanese fertility, according to the latest story (second link, above), is to fund pensions for the growing ranks of Japanese retirees. But this is a pretty crass way to compel more births, so I think they're gonna have to come up with something else.

They might start with exploring the root causes of why so many Japanese women choose not to get married at all, or get hitched so late that having more than one kid is unlikely. In the U.S., that's due in large part to the "who-needs-a man?" post-feminist line peddled to females from college onward, and to a lesser extent, environmentalism in extremis. But in Japan there's another factor, beyond the sharp decline in arranged marriages since the mid-1950s. A great many men are still forced to show unnatural devotion to their work lives, including mandatory and heavy after hours drinking and dining with co-workers and clients, and may not even come home several nights a week, checking into "salaryman" hotel cubicles near the office. This used to work OK in days gone by, but no more.

In this August, 2004 BBC report, correspondent Jonathan Head observes:

For half a century, Japan built the world's most successful industrial society on the back of a relentless work ethic which rigidly separated the roles of men and women. Women were tied to looking after the home and children. But the Japanese salaryman was expected to devote every waking hour to his company, even if that meant being a stranger to his own family. It's a formula which is now being rejected by younger women in their millions, leaving the more traditionally minded men bewildered and confused. In desperation, these young men have formed a group calling themselves The Cherry Boys. A throwback to a bygone age of chivalry, they have taken a vow of chastity until they find the woman of their dreams.

Yes, but if their dream is that of their fathers', then Japan's birth rates will only continue to slide.

"Two Marriage Partners + Two Children = Happy Family." There's a rough start for the fertility push. Notice I didn't say "equal" partners; the word is too loaded in this context. The modern idea of marriage as an evolved partnership which can allow for a wife's career and which requires an active contribution to parenting and family life from the father is a big part of what Japan will have to promote, to re-charge the popularity of marriage and births over coming decades. And it is private sector executives and managers who will have to set the family-friendly tone. Meanwhile, the government must 86 the lame "save the pensioners" motif.

TECHNORATI TAGS: JAPAN, BIRTH RATE, FERTILITY, MARRIAGE, SEX ROLES, SINGLE WOMEN, SINGLE MEN, FAMILY SIZE, PENSIONERS