I have some friends in Northern California who several years back fortunately declined to buy a house on the San Andreas fault line. That they were even considering it was quite alarming to me. Which is another way of saying you'd better choose your home carefully, and that includes the location. Many years back, lower-income black residents of New Orleans were able to buy cheap homes on low-lying land in the Ninth Ward, a section of the city laid to waste last summer after Hurrican Katrina and widespread floods. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, now that he's had a few months to live down his infamous comments about the rebuilt city needing to be more "chocolate," is dishing out some reality to Ninth Ward residents. The final version of a mayoral commission report issued in January will be presented to the public tonight, and it will include a warning to residents against rebuilding in the Ninth Ward, and other low-lying neighborhoods. Insurance companies will be issuing such high premiums for properties in the hard-hit neighborhoods that any rebuilt homes aren't likely to be sellable by the current owners, anytime down the line. Rebuilding grants may not apply in these areas, either. More in this morning's New Orleans Times-Picayune (quick, free three-step reg. req.).

The final report from his Bring New Orleans Back Commission offers some weighty caveats for homeowners thinking about resettling in some of the hardest-hit areas, in particular the Lower 9th Ward and a pair of low-lying sections of eastern New Orleans. In those so-called "delayed recovery areas," Nagin said, his administration will continue issuing building permits to all comers. But City Hall's pledge of cooperation comes with a strongly worded warning to people to rebuild there at their own risk, at least for the time being.

...the report emphasizes the likelihood that properties in devastated parts of the city may not be eligible for federal grants that will be disbursed by the state and that homeowners could face sharp increases in insurance premiums down the road. That may sharply degrade the market value of the houses, making them hard if not impossible to sell later. Also, Nagin said, he wants homeowners in areas that struggle to repopulate to understand that the cash-strapped city may not be able to provide even the limited level of municipal services -- from police patrols to a functioning sewer system to weekly garbage collection -- it now offers in thriving neighborhoods.

...Many residents have reacted violently to the idea, some viewing it as a back-door way of keeping certain people, chiefly the poor, out of the city....State and city leaders are counting on $10.4 billion from the Community Development Block Grant program to pay for rebuilding, rehabilitating and buying out tens of thousands of flood-ravaged homes. Beyond that, Nagin said, his plan seeks another $2 billion to $2.5 billion for infrastructure needs, including a light rail system and expansion of streetcar lines. That request is about half of what the Bring New Orleans Back Commission originally sought.

The federal grants to buy out badly damaged properties are appropriate. There would doubtless be concerns among the owners about what constitutes fair market value, but the basic idea at least gives them a chance to recoup some of their investment; even two-thirds or half of the prior assessment is a lot better than what these flooded New Orleans homes could fetch on the free market right now or even later, rebuilt. In addition to buy-outs, some other ruined homes may qualify for grants to be rebuilt at higher heights. Post-Katrina, elevation is more clearly appreciated as a crucial factor.

If a storm matching Katrina's force hits the region anytime soon, Nagin said, he fears that levees will be overtopped again, bringing floodwaters to the 9th Ward below the Industrial Canal and to parts of eastern New Orleans....soon-to-be-released advisory flood plain maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency....used to calculate required home elevations as well as flood insurance rates, likely will have a defining effect on homeowners' decisions. If the new maps require homes to be built much higher in certain areas, for instance, the cost to residents could be prohibitive, discouraging resettlement.

Equally important, Nagin said, are the guidelines for awarding federal grants to help homeowners rebuild or elevate their houses. The guidelines are being prepared by the Louisiana Recovery Authority, the state agency that will distribute the federal money. While the state plan could well result in thousands of New Orleans homes being raised to safer heights, questions linger about what will happen to the tens of thousands of homes that may wind up ineligible for elevation grants. Many of the city's hardest-hit neighborhoods are filled with slab-on-grade homes built below base flood elevation that are unlikely to qualify.

Lower ground, higher ground. Class. Income. Race?

Even some commission members said they deplored the discussion of a reduced footprint. In fact, community activist Barbara Major, whom Nagin named co-chairwoman of the commission, said her fellow commissioners and their hired planners were well-intentioned but failed to grasp the economic implications of their recommendations for lower income African-American families. "They had great ideas about land use, but I don't think they had any understanding of the historical significance of the 9th Ward," Major said, referring to largely African-American areas including Gentilly and eastern New Orleans. "Black people only moved there because all the good high ground had been taken."

New Orleans need not stand as a symbol that blacks can only inhabit lower ground. For that is no longer true, as we all know. We all do know that, right?

TECHNORATI TAGS: NEW ORELANS, HURRICANE KATRINA, LOW-LYING NEIGHBORHOODS, NINTH WARD, REBUILDING HOMES, BRING BACK NEW ORELANS COMMISSION