Los Angeles is headed to close out the year with a 10 percent drop in crime, the L.A. Times reports today. It's the third year straight that crime has declined there. L.A. Police Chief Police Chief Richard Bratton, who in New York pioneered the use of computerized analysis to shift resources, boost accountability and reduce crime, believes that his his use of similar tools, and goal-setting, is behind L.A.'s drop. I think Bratton is a great police leader who has helped re-write the book on modern-day urban policing. But there may be other factors at play, too.

Other experts point to a variety of reasons, from Los Angeles' relatively strong economy to the dramatic gentrification of many once-tough neighborhoods. Los Angeles' crime drop this year is slightly better than those recorded by other big cities. In New York, crime is down roughly 5% this year. Chicago has seen a 7% drop as of the end of November. "A lot of cities are continuing to see a decline in crime. That doesn't mean it's because of the police. There are other factors," said James Alan Fox, professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University in Boston. "Demographics, for instance. We have a growing population over the age of 50. And every day as they grow older, the crime rate benefits."

Assistant Chief George Gascon, who oversees the LAPD's daily operations, disagrees with those assessments. He said that Los Angeles is not benefiting from an aging population and that while some areas are gentrifying, other areas that have seen crime declines are not, such as the San Fernando Valley and South Los Angeles. Malcolm Klein, criminologist and professor emeritus of sociology at USC, said, "Crime is a function of so many different things. And in making such goals, Bratton is assuming his department is a major factor. Unemployment, population shifts, racial tensions all are important."

Take the Hollywood area: It recorded 25 homicides in 2004. So far this year, there have been 11. The turnaround coincided with a major revitalization effort that has brought new businesses and vigor to the once-struggling neighborhood. But it also came as the LAPD focused considerable resources there, including installing surveillance cameras along Hollywood Boulevard that officials said have resulted in dozens of arrests.

Leron Gubler, president of the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce, said he believes the influx of residents and businesses began Hollywood's crime turnaround but that increased police efforts clearly helped. "It's definitely not the same Hollywood," Gubler said. "People who haven't been here for years tell me they can't believe the change. It's dramatic. Thirteen years ago, a lot of people wouldn't admit they lived in Hollywood."

The northeast San Fernando Valley has also seen a sizable decrease in crime, with homicides down 17%, burglaries down 19% and robberies down 30%. Longtime Sylmar resident and community activist Bart Reed said he has noticed a change in just the last few years — and gives the most credit to the improving economy in the working-class neighborhood and rising property values. Homes that a few years ago sold for $150,000 now go for $450,000.

"There seems to be less gang activity, less graffiti, less people just hanging around on the street," Reed said. "I think it's because the economy is finding these people jobs." But Reed also said he has noticed far more of a police presence, especially since the LAPD opened a station on San Fernando Road.

Growth, gentrification, and cops on the beat are all a force for social good. And surveillance cameras, too. Imagine that.

TECHNORATI TAGS: LOS ANGELES, CRIME, POLICE, JOBS, GROWTH, SURVEILLANCE CAMERAS

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at December 21, 2005 10:52 AM