There's a lot riding on the October 15 vote for a new constitution in Iraq, and the Washington Post's David Ignatius writes that crucial Sunni turnout is now actually being encouraged by clerics, with Sunni registration rising as a result. Happily, a justified change in Oct. 15 election rules - which naturally has caused much handwringing at the New York Times - seems likely to further undercut the push for a Sunni boycott due to the ongoing terrorist intimidation campaigns of Saddam loyalists, and the group which calls itself al Qaeda in Iraq. But Ignatius says that even if Iraqi voters approve the constitution, it would be the results of a December vote for a new Iraqi parliament that would be most essential. Give the U.S. six more months in Iraq, and remember that Shiite-Lite is the recipe for success, says Ignatius.

Every commander I talked with said Sunni registration is up. That signals a recognition that Iraq's future will be shaped by ballots, not suicide bombers. The real political milestone is the December balloting to elect a new, permanent government. The good news for people who want to see a secular Iraq is that the Sistani-backed clerical list is almost certain to get fewer votes than it did in the Jan. 30 balloting. And possibly, just possibly, enough Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shiites will vote for alternative lists to allow a new ruling coalition of secular parties, perhaps allied with religious ones, which might link arms across the Shiite-Sunni divide. Such a coalition might be headed by a secular Shiite politician, such as the wily Ahmed Chalabi or former prime minister Ayad Allawi.

Maybe I'm dreaming in imagining that a stable, secular government can still emerge. But the point is that we're finally approaching crunchtime. If the next six months don't produce something like the outcome I have described, there is every likelihood that Iraq will descend into the civil war that has been looming for two years....We may fail in Iraq, but let's not rush it.

Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Katrina. "A world spinning out of control?" asks Michael Barone. Hardly, he concludes.

UPDATE: The referendum rules change has been overturned by the national assembly.

TECHNORATI TAGS: IRAQ, CONSTITUTION, COALITION

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Posted by Matt Rosenberg at October 4, 2005 11:56 AM