Iraq's landmark, free and open elections this weekend couldn't have happened without the U.S.-led invasion of the country and our toppling of Saddam Hussein. In the Jerusalem Post, Shlomo Avineri celebrates "The End of Sunni Hegemony," but wonders: what next?
Will the majority of the Sunnis accept their minority status, renounce their claim to hegemony, isolate the more extremist and terrorist elements in their midst and cooperate with the Shi'ites and Kurds in the rebuilding of what could be one of the richest Arab countries? Let's hope so. But the alternative is also possible – that the Sunnis will continue their violence and make the establishment of a legitimate, coherent Iraqi body politic impossible.On the other hand, will the Shi'ite majority, split between more clerical-oriented groups and secular supporters of interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, be capable of establishing a majority regime that will not turn Iraq into a theocracy and will give its minorities a place in the sun?
Already there are indications that the Shi'ites are unhappy with the virtual veto given to the Kurds in the interim constitution. This document views the country as a binational, Arab and Kurdish state and it is obvious that the Kurds – who have enjoyed a de facto autonomy for the past decade – are not going to give it up to another centralizing and possibly oppressive Baghdad-based Arab regime, Shi'ite or Sunni. The Kurds also control the only effective indigenous fighting force in Iraq – the peshmerga – and it is unlikely they will give it up.
Additionally, the transformation in Iraq has far-reaching regional consequences. After the Palestinian elections, here is a second case of relatively free elections in the Arab world, something that may make the non-elected rulers in Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia feel a bit uncomfortable.
Parents and loved ones of slain U.S. soldiers, like all our Armed Forces and millions of Americans, knew all along that hope for the future of Iraq; for the Middle East; for Islam; and for The West justified our coalition's intervention in Iraq. The future is unsettled, as it must be now. We will not beat a hasty retreat. The violence will continue, and we will keep training Iraqi soldiers and police so they can stand on their own when the time comes. The elections show that the desire of most Iraqis for self-determination is a powerful weapon.
Lying in tatters now is the faux-utopian paradigm of the U.S. Left regarding Iraq, which held that every unanswered question about the future, every doubt and worry, every planning failure, every setback, and every death was proof of the mission's futility and a keening arrogance on the part of George W. Bush.
Fatuous rot, all of it.
Of course, there are no guarantees it will all work out. But that distinct possiiblity now exists where it did not before, in a key Middle East nation, and the very cradle of civilization. Can anyone sanely doubt this is a juncture worth having arrived at?
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at January 31, 2005 11:08 PM
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There may be some sympathy or support for the "insurgents" among Iraqi Sunni Arabs. But as others have commented, the insurgents and their supporters only represent a minority of a minority.
It appears that at least about 40 percent of Sunni Arabs voted, ignoring both the terrorist intimidations, Sunni clerical injunctions and some Sunni leaders' call for a boycott.
I suspect that the majority of Sunni Arabs are no fools. If the terrorists are successful in destablizing the New Iraq, the only thing that will occur is a civil war, probably with Kurds and Arab Shiites on the one side and Arab Sunni on the other. The latter knows that, should that occur, it will benefit the likes of Zarqawi and other foreign terrorists, but the Arab Sunnis themselves will pay dearly.
Considering that the Arab Shiites have made it crystal clear that they are willing to share power with Sunnis, I think the majority of the latter will join New Iraq.
Posted by: James J. Na at February 2, 2005 08:49 AMThe strategy of the insurgents has been clear for some time: to maintain a level of violence that will intimidate Iraqis who cooperate and to discourage the Americans. This has been a remarkably effective strategy so far--virtually paralysing the reconstruction effort and demoralizing American public opinion. It may yet succeed.
James Na is right to call attention to the importance of the Sunni Arab population. Separating them from the religous zealots is critical to undermining the insurgency. But we know surprisingly little about their motives. If it is true, as Mr. Na surmises, that their primary concern is merely self-protection from a Shiite/Kurdish-dominated government, there is an encouraging opportunity for compromises that will divide-and-pacify (so to speak). On the other hand, if what the Sunni Arabs really seek is mastery, then "minority of a minority" or not, the war goes on.
Posted by: Tom Rekdal at February 2, 2005 12:21 PM