Today's the last day of vote-counting in the tighter-than-tight WA Guv. race, until the almost inevitable recount, that is. R-Dino Rossi led D-Christine Gregoire by 19 votes after counting ceased yesterday. There are an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 votes left to count today, barring the "discovery" of more previously unanticipated ballots. (And the numbers arre already rolling in, Rossi now up 64 votes as of 9:29 AM, PST).
What we might expect to see today is outlined at the Seattle-based group conservative blog Sound Politics, courtesy of my colleague Stefan Sharkansky, who's been tracking this bewitching, bewildering race about as closely as anyone, while somehow maintaining his sanity. (Those 10,000 "discovered" ballots in the Gregoire stronghold of King County put a crimp in any further projections, understandably). Here's the latest SP daily vote count link you'll want to check back on, along with the WA Sec. of State's Guv race vote count link.
If the winning margin is less than one-half percent and less than 2,000 votes (as seems increasingly likely) a recount is mandatory under state law.
Some bizarre stuff has been going on. This story from today's Seattle Times tells more.
A judge in King County (home of Seattle, and a Gregoire stronghold) ruled in favor of the WA Dem. Party's suit to count provisional ballots supported only by affidavits from the voters, whose signatures on the PBs did not match their signatures on their voter registration. Republicans are fighting that, in court, as well they should.
The WA GOP is also "likely" to take legal action today in Yakima County (pro-Rossi territory) to allow it to submit affidavits for validation of currently rejected PBs there. The idea being if the affidavit-validated PBs are allowed to count in Gregoire territory, the same standard should hold in Rossi country.
On top of all this (my own view here, not from The Times' story linked to above) is to remember the wild card: Libertarian Guv candidate Ruth Bennett, an out and proud lesbian. Some local obervers disagree with my view that if Rossi loses, her (now-62,000 some) votes will have cost him the election. They argue she actually took more votes from Gregoire, because her gay rights platform attracted more D-leaners, than R-leaners. I disagree, as few folks actually read the Voter's Pamphlet, and she got minimal press.
When you pick a Libertarian over a Republican for Governor, it's in most cases because you subscribe to the underlying "limited government" premise both parties espouse. Whether Rossi wins or not, it's a shame Bennett voters were more interested in feel-good symbolism than electing one of the only two realistic contenders.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at November 17, 2004 09:37 AM
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Matt,
How will the newly approved 'Louisiana' primary work in future elections? Won't this result in 3rd parties being absent from the general election ballot? Or does it only cause a runoff like in Louisiana if no candidate gets 50%?
Posted by: TimF at November 17, 2004 05:40 PMTim, to your first question: quite well I think, if the state political aprties don't get it tossed out in court, which they have promised to try doing, much to my dismay.
To your second: It sure seems like it, and on balance that wouldn't bother me at all. The third parties still get to compete in the primary, they just wouldn't get to muck up the general. Talk about making "every vote count."
Third question: not sure about that. Let me know if you find out before me.
Posted by: Matt R. at November 18, 2004 09:51 AM"Some local obervers disagree with my view that if Rossi loses, her (now-62,000 some) votes will have cost him the election. They argue she actually took more votes from Gregoire, because her gay rights platform attracted more D-leaners, than R-leaners. I disagree, as few folks actually read the Voter's Pamphlet, and she got minimal press."
What exactly is the basis for your belief? Any FACTUAL data at all, or are you just omnicient? If you plot votes by county for Rossi and sort from highest to lowest, then plot Bennett's totals and compare, you will see that generally she did best where Gregoire did best, and did poorly where Rossi did well. If Bennett is drawing from the same pool of supporters as Rossi, one would expect precisely the opposite to be true.
Libertarian Party members have been begging the GOP for years to actually go do the statistical analysis/polling that wouldreveal where Ls are drawing their support. This year, Rossi's pollsters did just that and - as reported by The Daily News (Longview, WA) "A Rossi pollster suggested that Bennett's backing came out of Gregoire's hide, according to the Associated Press." See http://www.tdn.com/articles/2004/11/04/top_story/news01.txt
Libertarians can help elect Democrats by taking support from Republicans, or can help elect Republicans by undercutting support for Democrats. That depends on whether the L candidate emphasizes personal liberty issues (like opposition to the Draft, free borders, same-sex marriage, ending the Drug War) or economic liberty issues (like lower taxes and fewer business regulations).
In the final weeks of the campaign, Ls urged Rossi to mail a flyer promoting Bennett's campaign overtly supporting same-sex marriage to every D in Seattle. Although considered, that was never done.
If Rossi loses, the ultimate irony will be that people like you - denegrating Libertarian candidates - may well have caused his loss.
If Rossi wins, I hope you will send a thank you card to Ms. Bennett.
Also, FYI, Libertarian Kelly Haughton, who chaired Pierce County's districting commission last year, altered Kevin Wimsett's district from a "safe D" to a "swing" district (because Kelly created as many "swing" districts as was possible). The result came in this year: Wimsett lost and the Rs gained control over the Pierce County Council.
Hopefully, you will go get the FACTS on this issue also, and send Libertarian Kelly Haughton a thank you letter for that change in the political power structure.
Posted by: J. Mills at November 20, 2004 04:17 PM