Who's betting on W? Let's start with British online "punters," as they're known.
OF COURSE, given the legal wrangling likely if the margin of a Bush victory is anything less than smashing, there's every reason to keep pushing hard, harder, hardest.
So perhaps we should take with a grain of salt the dish from Silicon.com.
George W Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's US Presidential elections, if online betting patterns are to be believed. Although US opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate Bush from his Democratic Party challenger John Kerry, punters using online betting exchange Betfair have overwhelmingly backed Dubya. Betfair's latest figures show £2.3m has been wagered on Bush, putting him on 60 per cent, while Kerry has attracted only £680,000 of bets. Bush has been backed down to 1/5 to stay in office while punters can still get odds of 2/1 on Kerry to win.Betfair claims its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls, having correctly predicted Australia's prime minister John Howard to secure a surprise comfortable victory in last month's general election.
Mark Davies, director of communications at Betfair, said opinion polls only canvas a small percentage of the population who have no real incentive to provide accurate information.
"In contrast, Betfair's prices are based on people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," he said in a statement. "Our figures have proved to be an amazingly accurate indicator at both the Australian general election last month and the California Governor's election last year. As a result, we're sure George Bush will be pleased to hear that Betfair's sharp-minded punters are backing him to the hilt."
If that sounds a bit naff, try this. The prominent investment research company, Morningstar, has surveyed European fund management firms, and 69 percent of respondents say they expect Bush to be re-elected, though a majority personally prefer Kerry.
Undecided voters in the U.S. will go with their guts, emphasizing leadership, according to this piece in the Allentown, PA Morning Call. And that could break in Bush's favor.
''Leadership is especially important for weak-leaning voters not attached to a party. It's a critical element of their choice,'' said G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster and director of the school's Center for Politics and Political Affairs....In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 56 percent of those who responded said Bush ''acts more like a leader'' and 38 percent said Kerry acts more like a leader.
''I think President Bush is a strong leader, strong and firm,'' said Hilltown Township Republican Jackie Walker, who is undecided. ''But I don't always feel he's made good decisions.''
...The reason Bush is seen as such a strong leader, she said, even among those who don't always agree with his decisions, is simple: He stays on his message and people know what he stands for.
Precisely. Most of all, Bush stands for aggressively pursuing terrorists, and staying the course in Iraq. Whereas Kerry stands for glomming on to every last "gotcha" headline he can in the home stretch; and for kowtowing to "world opinion" while Islamic Jihadists plot deadly attacks on American schools, office buildings, malls, and our transportation infrastructure.
Kerry is a cipher, a man with no moral center. Bush is a man of conviction and courage. The choice is clear.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at October 29, 2004 12:27 PM
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Tracked on September 8, 2005 09:19 PM