A new Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely voters puts Bush up over Kerry, 51-45 percent nationally. Swing voters are doubtful about Bush, but even more queasy over Kerry's lack of a clearly articulated plan, according to the poll.
Meanwhile, Michael Moore is very worried that Democrats are becoming mired in defeatism. He warns not to take the polls too seriously because: many young voters with cell phones, not home phones, aren't being contacted; infrequent voters will turn out this time because Bush hatred is running high; and Ds are being undersampled in many polls.
Moore echoes the DNC talking points quite well, but like his partisan cohorts, ignores several things. People who've never voted before, including both new and infrequent voters, can't reliably be included in samples because there's no telling they will actually vote. They have no track records.
Further, if they do vote, increased turnout usually just reflects existing polling...in other words, not all new or infrequent voters will break for Kerry. Some will feel as strongly about supporting Bush.
Finally, the idea of "representative" sampling in polls is overrated. It is ususally based on percentage of registered Democrats and Republicans in a state or national electorate versus that sampled in a corresponding poll, but people sometimes vote against their declared party affiliation, depending on the office sought and influencing factors, like, say, the war in Iraq, and terrorism. That's why we have Democrats for Bush, and Republicans for Kerry.
The upcoming debates are Kerry's last chance. As I've said recently, don't expect anything less than a crisp, consistent performance from Bush. He'll be putting Kerry on the defensive more than the other way around. Should be interesting to see.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at September 27, 2004 10:53 PM
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Matt:
You wrote "That's why we have Democrats for Bush, and Republicans for Kerry." The problem for Kerry is that there are far more Bush Democrats than there are Kerry Republicans.
Posted by: James J. Na at September 27, 2004 10:59 PMBurrrrrrr, Question is Will Kerry will carry Bush behind the Bush.
Nitish Tewary
Posted by: Nitish Tewary at September 28, 2004 03:38 AMBurrrrrrr, Question is Will Kerry will carry Bush behind the Bush of Democracy.
Nitish Tewary
Posted by: Nitish Tewary at September 28, 2004 03:40 AMPowerline had a item this morning indicating that the 18-30 demographic is the most unfavorable for Kerry. While Mr. Moore may be correct about polls missing cell phone users, that may not help Kerry much.
FWIW, polls miss me too, since I refuse to answer them out of principle (that I hate polls in general, and the MSM 'horserace' meme in particular).
Posted by: TimF at September 28, 2004 09:41 AMIt's good to see that Moore still thinks he's smarter than the experts. The whole point of a +- is to reflect errors in polling, and his cell phone theory would certainly fall within the margin of error since only an extremely small number of people only use cell phones as opposed to land lines.
He can try all he wants to rally the troops and put a better face on a deteriorating situation, but it won't do much good.
Posted by: Jeff at September 28, 2004 09:57 AMHEY ALL! JUST READ THIS,,,, I SPOTTED IT SOMEWHERE.........
Heaven's Clocks
Delbert died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him.
He asked, "What are all those clocks?"
St. Peter answered, "Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on Earth has a Lie-Clock. Every time you lie the hands on your clock will move."
"Oh," said the man, "whose clock is that?"
"That's Mother Teresa's. The hands have never moved, indicating that she never told a lie."
"Incredible," said the man. And whose clock is that one?"
St. Peter responded, "That's Abraham Lincoln's clock. The hands have moved twice, telling us that Abe told only two lies in his entire life."
"Where's Senator Kerry's clock?" asked the man.
"Kerry's clock is in Jesus' office. He's using it as a ceiling fan."
ON EARTH WE HAVE CARRY FANS IN HEAVEN ABOVE WE HAVE KERRY FAN......
NITISH TEWARY
Posted by: Nitish Tewary at September 28, 2004 10:55 PM