From Seattle writer and consultant Matt Rosenberg...: Survey USA: Rossi and Gregoire Tied; Kerry's WA Lead Dwindling

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Survey USA: Rossi and Gregoire Tied; Kerry's WA Lead Dwindling

September 23, 2004

A neck-and-neck race for Governor of Washington State, and two somewhat conflicting polls on Kerry-Bush in WA. First, Governor: A SurveyUSA poll of 621 likely voters, conducted Sept. 19-21, gives Democrat Christine Gregoire 47 percent to Republican Dino Rossi's 46 percent. With a 4 percent margin of error, that's a dead heat.

About the Kerry-Bush contest in WA......

"Kerry Cements Lead in Washington State" blares the USA Today headline. AP writer David Ammons cites an Ipsos-Public Affairs poll of 406 registered voters, conducted Sept. 17-20, showing Kerry ahead of Bush 51% to 42%.

Back to that pesky SurveyUSA Poll, done for Seattle and Spokane TV. It calls the Kerry-Bush race here "tight." 51-46 Kerry, a spread only one more than the margin of error. Kerry's spread in WA was 8 points 5 weeks ago, now just 5 points. Same sample as for Rossi-Gregoire: 621 likely voters, a much better measure than merely the registered voters in the Ipsos poll. And, the SurveyUSA poll was more recent, Sept. 19-21, versus Sept. 17-20 for Ipsos.

The SurveyUSA poll also asked the same sample group about the U.S. Senate race. Results: Patty Murray (D) over (R) George Nethercutt 53-41; but Murray's spread was 14 points 5 weeks ago, now 8.

In the race to replace Gregoire as Washington AG; (R) Rob McKenna, 46; (D) Deborah Senn 42.