From Seattle writer and consultant Matt Rosenberg...: Kerry's Boat Sinking?

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Kerry's Boat Sinking?

September 14, 2004

New Jersey was supposed to be solidy in the Kerry column. But it may not be, according to the Philly Inquirer.

...winning Democrat-friendly New Jersey in November appears increasingly uncertain as Kerry's late-summer swoon has clouded his prospects in a must-win state...The 20 percentage-point lead that Kerry had amassed...at the end of July virtually evaporated, with Bush trailing by only 4 percentage points in the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll.
Many remain dubious that Bush will collect New Jersey's 15 electoral votes...But keeping the state in play would signal serious problems for the Kerry campaign.

"If John Kerry is fighting for his life in a Democratic state, he can't win the election," said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington political analyst. "John Kerry needs to win New Jersey, no ifs, ands or buts, and he needs to win it comfortably."

Most striking about the latest poll is that voters indicated they were not shifting from Kerry to undecided - a typical reaction during the ups and downs of a long campaign - but were falling into the Bush camp. The erosion of Kerry support was broad, crossing demographic lines to include independents, who make up the majority of New Jersey voters, and core Democratic constituencies such as women.

...The pool suggested that among New Jersey voters, as with those across the nation, the Republican convention in New York had a devastating effect on Kerry.

Hmmmn. (Puget Sound blogger Jim Miller was on to Bush's possibilities in New Jersey, way back in April).

Additional reports, from other states that are considered far more "in play" than Jersey.

"Kerry Stumbles in Key States as Bush Widens Lead in Polls," reports the achingly liberal Guardian (UK). The paper cites a Time Magazine poll that has Bush up 52-41 over Kerry in a three-way national poll (including Ralph Nader).

More here from CNN.com on the Time poll, in "Bush Bounce Persists."

The Guardian notes Virginia, Arizona and Missouri were thought to be in reach for Kerry, but less so now; and that whoever gets two out of three of the key battleground states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, will win. Bush ahead in all three, according to recent polls, says The Guardian - tho PA, especially, is disputed, according to other sources.

Associated Press reports polls show Bush is starting to pull ahead of Kerry in Missourri, Wisconsin and Ohio; and that in Wisconsin, Minnesota and other former Gore (2000) states, less-than-hoped-for black voter support is a factor.

And David Shribman warns the hate-Bush Left could actually end up throwing the election to Bush.

If so, polemicists such as this Bush conspiracy theorist writing in The Nation, will want to ask what else they could have written, and where?

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at September 14, 2004 06:01 PM

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