From Seattle writer and consultant Matt Rosenberg...

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WaPo/ABC News Poll: Bush Surging

September 09, 2004

National voter polls on the presidential race mean a lot less than the state-by-state polls and corrollary results, because state totals determine electoral votes and thus victory or defeat. And as it happens, Bush is pulling ahead in Ohio and Missouri, two key battleground states that will help determine the electoral college outcome, according to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll.

Some more interesting stuff in this latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, showing that post-GOP convention, Bush is surging forward, as far as national popular vote intentions, presently capturing the public's trust as the candidate most fit to be chief executive for the next four years. Popular vote will matter to some extent if Bush narrowly wins the electoral college tally.Then, the greater his margin of victory in the popular vote, the stronger his mandate to govern decisively, as he has so far, especially with respect to Iraq and national security.

The WaPo/ABC News poll shows Bush ahead 52-43 percent over Kerry among likely voters, and 50-44 among all registered voters.

In battleground states, where, The WaPo says, the election will be decided, Bush leads Kerry 50-46 among likely voters, but there's an even split between the two among all registered voters in those key states.

Message to urban Dems: turn-out. Turnout. Something not wisely conflated with preach-to-the-choir "non-partisan" anti-war poetry projects; and anti-Bush bowling excursions, rock concerts, or sculpture.

Is Kerry as tone-deaf as his self-affirming supporters? Quite possibly. The WSJ's Brendan Miniter explains why "Bush Will Bury Kerry."

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at September 9, 2004 03:04 PM

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