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Bush Pulling Close in CA
August 20, 2004
National polls on Kerry vs. Bush are fairly worthless, because it is a series of winner-take-all state votes - and the resulting electoral votes from each state - which determine who wins the presidency. States with larger populations, and thus more electoral votes, are the real prizes. One of the biggest is California, thought to be a Kerry stronghold. Not if a poll done this week by SurveyUSA is any indication. The survey of 589 likely voters (a far better measure than registered voters) shows Kerry with 49 percent, Bush 46, other 3, undecided 3. Margin of error: plus or minus 4.1 percent. Bush leads by 11 percent among men, by 21 points in the Central Valley, 23 points in the Inland Empire; Kerry by 16 percent among women, 25 points in the San Francisco Bay Area, and 16 in greater Los Angeles. FYI, SurveyUSA is a highly-regarded non-partisan outfit which does NOT include political campaigns among its clients. SurveyUSA's public opinion work is done for major- and mid-size-market TV stations. So......Bush within three points (give or take) in California. Wow. Hat tip to Mike Krempasky at Red State. Posted by Matt Rosenberg at August 20, 2004 10:30 AM Trackback Pings TrackBack URL for this entry: Comments:
I have recently become addicted to daily visits to another political indicator--the Iowa Electronic Markets at www.uiowa.edu/iem. For readers not familiar with this site, it offers two political futures markets sponsored by the University of Iowa Business School. One is based upon the expected vote share of each major candidate for president, and the other is a simple winner-takes-all prediction of the ultimate victor. Traders are not likely voters, or registered voters, or even "representative" voters. They are mostly white, mostly young, and mostly professional. But they have a better track record at predicting winners and vote margins than the polls do. You do not have to trade to keep track of these markets, the results of which are updated every 15 minutes around the clock. At the moment, Bush has a narrow lead (or did 15 minutes ago). Posted by: Tom Rekdal at August 20, 2004 12:59 PMBush coming in close in Cali would be a miracle, but it's nice to think about. Great blog, by the way. It will become one of my daily reads. Posted by: LB at September 4, 2004 01:39 PMPost a comment
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