August 05, 2004
Republican candidate for Governor of Washington Dino Rossi is ahead of both Democrats and within 6 points of their combined total. Well-regarded, veteran independent pollster Stuart Elway did the poll for his monthly newsletter, The Elway Report.
The July 24-27 Elway Poll of 405 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus five percent. Republican Rossi got 35 percent; Democrat and current Attorney General Christine Gregoire 26; and Democrat and current King County Executive Ron Sims 15 percent. The remainder were undecided.
Elway told me this morning, "the bottom line is it looks like we're going to have a more closely contested governor's race than in a long time."
He also noted, "Rossi's got to be fairly happy he's within six points of the total Democratic vote. That's not a bad place to be."
A few caveats. The poll is of registered, not likely voters. And Elway observes that Rossi's 35 percent is a baseline figure for Republican gubernatorial candidates in Washington. You get that just for having an "R" next to your name. But Rossi's got 90 days to build on that, and, says Elway, "He's probably justified to be optimistic."
Especially given that his and Sims' Elway numbers have been rising, while Gregoire's have been staying flat.
Top Dem contender Gregoire, a career public servant, stepped in when two-term incumbent Democratic Gov. Gary Locke announced he wouldn't seek a third term. She hasn't exactly set the barn afire so far. One other Democratic candidate, former state senator and former state Supreme Court justice Phil Talmadge, dropped out of the primary for health reasons. Sims is running hard to the left.
The last two times around, Republicans fielded weak candidates for governor: Christian conservative Ellen Craswell in '96, and talk-show host John Carlson in '00. Rossi, a realtor and former state senator who chaired the Ways and Means Committee, is selling himself as a moderate.
He's relying on his engaging personality, and key role as a Senate committee chair, reaching compromise with Democrats in delicate state budget negotiations. Democrats are emphasizing his pro-life stance and high ratings from various conservative interest groups.
Yet even one of Seattle's most prominent liberal journalists, Sandeep Kaushik of the fangs-bared alternative weekly The Stranger, writes of Rossi's appeal. Here's Kaushik's July report for The Boston Globe.
....neutral observers have also been impressed by Rossi, who has drawn comparisons to Senator John Edwards, Democrat of North Carolina. In March, The Wall Street Journal dubbed Rossi a "state-level star," profiling him alongside Democrat Barack Obama....Last week, National Journal's Hotline, a Web-based subscription service for political insiders, highlighted Rossi's appeal in ranking Washington state a plausible GOP pickup among the 11 gubernatorial races this year.
National Republican leaders are thrilled with Rossi...(and)...sense a golden opportunity to shift a traditionally Democratic-leaning swing state into President Bush's column this November.
The state remains close to evenly divided despite having not supported a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan's landslide reelection in 1984 -- or elected a Republican governor since 1980.
Rossi's been wowin' em back home for a while now, as made clear in these impressions a prominent Washington Democrat shared with me after a candidate forum earlier this year.
Finally, it doesn't help Gregoire that her campaign spokesman Morton Brilliant, isn't.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at August 5, 2004 07:54 AM
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» WA: Dangerous Dino from Political State Report
The likely Republican nominee for Governor of Washington, Dino Rossi, is actually a slick huckster whose carefully-manicured image as a likeable suburban moderate - and experienced state legislator - masks an extremist conservative soul. At least, so w... [Read More]
Tracked on August 19, 2004 06:11 PM
» WA: Dangerous Dino from Political State Report
The likely Republican nominee for Governor of Washington, Dino Rossi, is actually a slick huckster whose carefully-manicured image as a likeable suburban moderate - and experienced state legislator - masks an extremist conservative soul. At least, so w... [Read More]
Tracked on August 19, 2004 06:16 PM
» WA: Dangerous Dino from Political State Report
The likely Republican nominee for Governor of Washington, Dino Rossi, is actually a slick huckster whose carefully-manicured image as a likeable suburban moderate - and experienced state legislator - masks an extremist conservative soul. At least, so w... [Read More]
Tracked on August 19, 2004 06:21 PM
» WA: Dangerous Dino from Political State Report
The likely Republican nominee for Governor of Washington, Dino Rossi, is actually a slick huckster whose carefully-manicured image as a likeable suburban moderate - and experienced state legislator - masks an extremist conservative soul. At least, so w... [Read More]
Tracked on August 19, 2004 09:46 PM
» WA: Dangerous Dino from Political State Report
The likely Republican nominee for Governor of Washington, Dino Rossi, is actually a slick huckster whose carefully-manicured image as a likeable suburban moderate - and experienced state legislator - masks an extremist conservative soul. At least, so w... [Read More]
Tracked on August 20, 2004 07:59 AM
Wasn't there some sort of scandal involving Gregoire's office not filling in required forms that cost WA millions of $$$$? Why would anybody want a non-competent bureaucrat in a bureaucratic job? Rossi sounds like a decent guy who at least hasn't cost WA millions of $$$$.
Drifting away from the Democratic party because they are becoming virulently anti-Israel even though I do think a lot a social programs are needed. Rus