From Seattle writer and consultant Matt Rosenberg...

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Raisin' Cain

July 19, 2004

Herman Cain, a rich black conservative Republican, is running for U.S. Senate from Georgia. More from the Washington Post.

Cain, a former Burger King executive who owned Godfather's Pizza for 15 years before selling the chain in December, has chosen the most unconventional of stages for his political debut. In a state where more than half the Democratic voters are black, he is bidding to become the first African American elected to the U.S. Senate from the Deep South since Reconstruction by running as a Republican -- and a highly conservative Republican at that.

He has no delusions of appealing to masses of African American voters, saying he would expect to draw some support from black Democrats, but "no avalanche," if he pulls an upset over the front-runner, Rep. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), and makes it into the general election.

...Appealing to the mostly white, rural and small-town audiences that turn out for his speeches, Cain touts his opposition to abortion and his desire to abolish the Internal Revenue Service on damply humid courthouse squares, under century-old oaks, anywhere he can find someone who will listen.

Cain is seekng to fill the seat being vacated by retiring conservative Democrat Zell Miller, who supports President Bush's re-election bid.

Georgia is among five southern states where Senate seats held by Democrats are coming open this year. Republican leaders are confident they can win the seat in Georgia, in light of the state's recent shift toward the GOP after more than 130 years of solid Democratic control. Democrats seeking the nomination include first-term Rep. Denise L. Majette and millionaire businessman Cliff Oxford.

Cain, 58, has used polished television commercials to make abortion the signature issue in the campaign and to establish himself as the aggressor in the run-up to Tuesday's primary. As the primary season progresses, abortion is increasingly becoming a touchstone in races throughout the country.

In the mathematics of Republican politics in Georgia, the question is not whether candidates oppose abortion, but how to quantify how much they oppose it. Cain and Collins adhere to the one-exception rule, opposing abortion except when the health of the woman is in jeopardy. They pound Isakson for being a three-exception man, who also does not oppose abortions in cases of rape and incest.

...Cain rattles off statistics about high rates of abortion in the black population and high percentages of abortion clinics in predominantly African-American neighborhoods. In an interview on his campaign bus, Cain said he considers "plausible" a theory that the abortion rights group, Planned Parenthood, was formed to systematically lower the black population. "One of the motivations was killing black babies," he said, "because they didn't want to deal with the problems of illiteracy and poverty."

Though I'm pro-choice, it is not with any great enthusiasm. I agree with Cain that the culture of easy abortion is pernicious. But he goes overboard in positing that Planned Parenthood may be motivated by a black genocide plot. Rather than pandering to the right, he should make sure another message is inescapable: that he has a serious plan for dealing with the "illiteracy and poverty" among blacks that he decries.

And the abolish-the-I.R.S. plank only adds to his nutcase aura. What's his alternative?

I'm no Georgia political consultant, but my hunch here is that the "rural and small-town audiences" aren't going to get Cain through the GOP primary. If he wants to win, he'll have to reach GOP moderates in suburban Atlanta by talking less about the evils of abortion, and more about national security, priorities of government, public education, the federal budget, and the U.S. economy.

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at July 19, 2004 11:29 AM


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Comments:

It's "Cain" not "Cane"! And you left out that, as a minister, he spent some of his free time away from his campaign preaching to African-American congregations. It is noteworthy that he did not advocate voting for himself at any time during these sermons, although the pastors of the churches occasionally did.

Posted by: Paul M. at July 19, 2004 12:35 PM

Paul, fixed my typo on his name. Thanks for catching that, and for adding your views. Maybe you can tell me what else you think The Wa Post story left out. For instance, what else is Cain really stressing in his campaign besides opposition to abortion and abolition of the IRS?

Posted by: Matt R. at July 19, 2004 01:40 PM

This is an interesting item. It certainly presents a different picture of Cain than the one I was given by the Club for Growth, through which I made a small donation to Cain's campaign.

You really can't imagine what an alternative to the I.R.S. would look like? Matt, say it ain't so! How about a national sales tax or a flat tax?

As for Georgia politics, well, all I know about that is what I learned from Erskine Caldwell.

Posted by: Tom Rekdal at July 19, 2004 02:31 PM

I've heard Cain interviewed several times on the radio. He hardly comes off as some nut case. The abolish the IRS silliness is the newspaper's attempt to paint him as loony. His campaign web site promotes a national sales tax (not a value added tax) as an alternative to the current income and payroll tax system. This proposal has some real merit. Income and payroll taxes punish work and effort. And we all know what happens when we tax something, we get less of it.

Posted by: Gary B at July 19, 2004 06:12 PM

Actually, Cain isn't the only high profile African-American Republican running in the Georgia primaries tomorrow. Dylan Glenn is a candidate for Congress in the 8th distrtict.

I think of one the things to look isn't so much the rural/suburban split with either Cain or Glenn, but how they do amongst younger black voters who don't either have the personal connection to the civil rights movement or who are skeptical of those groups for being the establishment and, perish the thought, not especially productive or effective these days.

While not, perhaps, quite as dramatic as the conservative shifting in, say, younger Jewish voters, this may be happening with blacks as well. No one seems willing to admit that Georgia (and particularly around Atlanta) have growing middle-class black populations and the Democrats are not doing very well in middle-America these days.

Something to look for in the exit polls if that's your thing.

Posted by: Stu Gittelman at July 19, 2004 07:53 PM

Hold on there, Matt. You're putting words in Mr. Cain's mouth. What he is reported to have said, in the article you've quoted, is that he thinks it "plausible" that Planned Parenthood WAS FORMED to lower the black population, which is a very different thing from believing that the organization is today motivated by a black genocide plot. I have also read that a concern of the founders of Planned Parenthood was the rapid growth of a poor black population that would impose costs on the rest of society. I don't know if that's true, but plausible? Probably, yes. In any case, don't attribute views to Mr. Cain that he did not express.

Posted by: Jack A. at July 19, 2004 09:57 PM

Jack, Cain questions the past motivations of Planned Parenthood to quite an extent, even alleging, "One of the motivations was killing black babies."

He should have focused not on the evils of Planned Parenthood, past or present, but the poor decisions that pregnant teens make - and the importance of education and engaged parenting.

If Cain squeaks through the GOP primary, it will be in spite of, rather than because of, his demonization of Planned Parenthood.

Posted by: Matt R. at July 19, 2004 11:09 PM

He is referring to the keen and lifelong interest of the founder of Planned Parenthood, Margaret Sanger, in eugenics, and her "Negro Project," intended by her own profession to reduce the African-American population in New York and elsewhere. Some of the things she's quoted as having said are pretty creepy, and one can understand why some prominent African-Americans would be a little touchy where Planned Parenthood is concerned. But I agree that harkening back to the unfortunate history is not the most productive way for Mr. Cain to now address the closely linked problems of poverty, low educational levels, and out-of-wedlock births among African Americans, and hope he will do more. My point was simply that what Cain is quoted in the story as having said is (a) not what you said he said, and (b) not quite so loopy as you suggest.

Posted by: Jack A. at July 20, 2004 06:35 PM

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