Just as soon as the Seattle School District eliminates "Institutional Racism", the kids will come running back to fill all those empty seats. Seattle has it's own version of "boat people" as families with school age children continue to cross the lake.

Market realities may have something to do with it, Matt, but demographic realities have a lot more. The Baby Boom Echo is over -- those kids are now in college, or in the work force -- and we've entered what demographers are calling the Baby Bust. The K-12 age cohort, age 5-17, is growing very slowly, and is not forecast to resume anything like the rate of growth of the 80's to mid-'90s until something like 2014 or 2015. That, not market realities, however noteworthy, is the main reason why enrollment growth is flat or declining, and schools are closing.

I would also speculate that Seattle has become less attractive to families with children than used to be the case, and that that may contribute as well to the district's enrollment trends. Data are available with which to support or refute that notion, but I haven't taken the time to look for it.

Mr. Archer

I can't site the source but a recent (within six months) study of the private school enrollment of cities accross the country put Seattle at the secondest highest percentage in the country behind Hawaii. While Seattle schools comtemplate closures, have you heard of anything but talk of new school construction taking place on the Eastside?

I'm sorry, Seattle schools are just plain lousy, with their high dropout rates and their focus on anything but basic education.

Seattle does have it's own boat people, and they are kissing the school system good bye.

Gary B. -- I don't doubt what you're saying, and alluded, if obliquely, to that possibility in my second paragraph.

"Its," not "it's." It's the possessive pronoun. (Sorry, an obsession of mine.)

Some boring data: I've just checked, and of the 29 school districts in the state with enrollment of more than 10,000 in the 2002-03 school year, 13 (45%) experienced enrollment declines that year from the year before. Besides Seattle, those included, for example, Tacoma, Spokane, Lake Washington, Federal Way, Vancouver, Northshore, Everett and Highline. (I don't have statewide data for 2003-04.) So while I don't doubt that parents are fleeing Seattle schools, enrollment decline is a widespread phenomenon these days. Statewide, K-12 enrollment is forecast to rise just 0.3% in 2004-05, 0.4% in 2005-06 and 0.2% in 2006-07. It's the cycle we're in.

I'm just a product of the Seattle School System. My wife went to Belleve Schools (always marry your better).

Ha! Good advice.

J Archer's basic point is correct, but his timing is a bit off. The Baby Boom Echo peaked in 1990 (next year's HS freshman) and ended approximately 5-7 years later ( Dept. of Education Annual Births with Projections ). This matches with what my suburban (Snohmish Cty) district is seeing.

I don't think that's inconsistent with what I said. In any case, we agree on the essential point, which is that, because of demographics, public school enrollments are growing very slowly statewide, with many districts showing year-to-year declines, and that the trend in Seattle has to be placed in that context.

While Seattle's school enrollment has leveled off and remains stuck in the 45,000 range since 1993 and Seattle faces the same demographics as the rest of the state, Seattle school enrollments have plunged. The 1970 enrollment totaled 86,000. Almost 1/2 of it's students have disappeared
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2001903805_skuls15m.html

The cities percentage of students enrolled in private schools is significantly higher at 21% than both the national average of 10% or the Bellevue average of 12%.

The problem is not punctuation or population trends. People have long ago voted with their feet in Seattle.